Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.240323 0.291014 0.352497 0.433449 0.538558 0.672284 0.858340
2025-05-11 0.162259 0.213878 0.283637 0.387269 0.541719 0.770951 1.152325
2025-05-18 0.112567 0.158229 0.225322 0.335167 0.519027 0.831823 1.447934
2025-05-25 0.080922 0.119879 0.181236 0.290431 0.493135 0.884871 1.797161
2025-06-01 0.063464 0.098849 0.158462 0.273779 0.512091 1.040960 2.536114
2025-06-08 0.051141 0.083314 0.140938 0.261458 0.537866 1.244095 3.712741
2025-06-15 0.042491 0.072171 0.128488 0.255527 0.579007 1.537974 5.810348
2025-06-22 0.035820 0.063179 0.117910 0.250470 0.624213 1.914675 9.462839
2025-06-29 0.029627 0.053823 0.104296 0.233799 0.631429 2.201280 14.141015
2025-07-06 0.022668 0.041693 0.082088 0.188323 0.526910 1.947183 14.212245
2025-07-13 0.019741 0.037312 0.076110 0.183974 0.558508 2.373081 24.084992
2025-07-20 0.017815 0.034679 0.073542 0.188485 0.628935 3.170865 50.916579
2025-07-27 0.016155 0.032465 0.071853 0.196717 0.733200 4.580291 146.044145
2025-08-03 0.014453 0.029838 0.068509 0.198760 0.819668 6.323043 469.921163
2025-08-10 0.012679 0.026717 0.063107 0.191646 0.858158 7.954249 1526.303791
2025-08-17 0.011096 0.023787 0.057553 0.181791 0.875605 9.644210 6070.123634
2025-08-24 0.010085 0.022102 0.055160 0.183471 0.975376 13.796653 148794.346124
2025-08-31 0.009215 0.020620 0.053015 0.185461 1.089439 20.288252 NaN
2025-09-07 0.008509 0.019443 0.051522 0.189912 1.241827 31.984693 NaN
2025-09-14 0.007870 0.018334 0.049981 0.193653 1.408019 51.765650 NaN
2025-09-21 0.007128 0.016821 0.046740 0.187390 1.468479 71.158083 NaN
2025-09-28 0.006052 0.014238 0.039379 0.156560 1.204304 54.379796 NaN
2025-10-05 0.005614 0.013400 0.037865 0.156500 1.313197 83.610393 NaN